Deterministic and Stochastic Generation of Evaporation Data for Long-Term Mine Pit Lake Water Balance Modelling

Lakes commonly form in mine pits following the end of mining. A good understanding pit lake water balance over future decades to centuries is essential understand and manage environmental risks from lake. Evaporation often major or only outflow lake, thus being an important determinant equilibrium level risks. general lack situ measurements evaporation has meant that estimates have usually been based on pan coefficients derived for other contexts alternative unvalidated models. Our research used data weather station were floated a semi-arid central Queensland, Australia. deterministic aerodynamic model was developed these infill missing values, adjusted reconstruct long-term historical daily data. With average bias 6.5% during measurement period, this found be more accurate than simple models (e.g., using coefficient 0.7 gave 45%). The reconstructed then fit assess stochastic generation rainfall realisations, assuming stationary climate. Fitting at monthly time step accurately represent statistics. For example, cross-correlation between within 25 75 percentiles modelled values 11 12 months always 2.5 97.5 percentiles. However, nature presented limitations capturing interannual anomalies, with continuous periods up 6 years, where annual consistently lower higher values. had problems range statistics both evaporation. months, outside This likely arises complex patterns transitions wet dry days climate case study. While are promising, further work needed significance observed errors refine